Bright spots of hope have been few and far between in the past year of the COVID-19 pandemic. There were a few: the announcements of vaccine discoveries, restaurants opening for outdoor dining, the discovery that Zoom calls could at least connect us virtually, the first vaccine shots administered.
Not many nuggets of hope, but there were enough, at least, to keep us going.
But now it seems the U.S. is turning a corner in the pandemic battle and that is generating a lot of hope. More than half of adults have received at least one dose of vaccine and the number of new cases and fatalities continues to drop.
Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert, says the nation can “start being more liberal with masks” as long as vaccination rates continue to climb.
But the key to continuing to turn the COVID-19 corner is getting people vaccinated.
And it’s important to remember that turning a corner isn’t the same thing as achieving herd immunity or wiping out the virus altogether.
So, what’s next?
Herd immunity is achieved when a large enough portion of a population becomes immune to a disease (either because they were infected and recovered or through vaccination) and there’s nowhere else for the virus to spread. There may be small outbreaks but those would be contained.
But scientists say it’s becoming clear that not enough Americans will get vaccinated to achieve herd immunity. Vaccine rates are slowing, and polls show 20%-25% of adults will not get a vaccine. That may change over time, as reluctant people become more confident with vaccines and pharmaceutical companies win full approval for their vaccines, but probably not enough.
“Full FDA approval of COVID-19 vaccines provides a major step in helping the public achieve confidence in the substantial benefits versus risks of vaccines, and that should increase vaccination rates,” said Dr. Adrian Hernandez, executive director of the Duke Clinical Research Institute. “Full vaccine approval would also enable organizations to fully implement vaccination programs which would also help get more people vaccinated.”
Right now, scientists estimate roughly 85 percent of the population needs to be vaccinated to reach herd immunity. The country likely won’t reach that.
There may also be regional or community herd immunity, where enough people in a city or region have been vaccinated or recovered from the virus to bring infection rates very low. But a full, nationwide, herd immunity is probably not achievable.
It’s more likely life will return to a form of “normal”. COVID-19 restrictions will be lifted because the virus has become a manageable threat that will circulate around the country. People will get sick and be hospitalized. Some people will die. But those hospitalizations and deaths will be in small numbers.
The virus will still be out there and circulating and mutating into new variants, but people will be mostly back to pre-pandemic routines. There will likely be occasional lockdowns if there is a regional spike.
The variable in all of this is what is happening in the rest of the world.
India, for example, appeared to have the virus under control but the nation is experiencing a horrific and deadly spike.
“As people assumed the virus was under control, they started to take it lightly; family gatherings, religious festivals, music festivals and a lack of masking and distancing,” said Manoz Mohannan, health economist with the Sanford School of Public Policy and the Duke Global Health Institute.
Scientists estimate the variant seen in India is in at least half of the states in the U.S. now.
“But one thing we’ve learned from this pandemic if how effective the prevention measures have been; masking, distancing, avoiding crowds, hand washing,” said David Montefiori, director of the Laboratory for AIDS Vaccine Research and Development at Duke University Medical Center. “The U.S. was slow to adopt these practices and we need to keep that in mind moving forward.”
We should also have a lot more answers about where we are in the fight against COVID-19 by fall.
That’s because we’ll get a clearer picture of how long the vaccines are effective and whether a booster shot is needed. We’ll also see if there is a spike in infections after an expected drop in infections during the summer as more people go outside.
But how “normal” the nation becomes depends on more vaccinations. The more shots in arms the better the virus will be contained.